Random Thoughts on Coronavirus Panic

As the novel coronavirus crisis in China finally under control, the virus becomes more widely spread in US,  and Europe has become the new epicenter of the pandemic per WHO - world health organization.

Media and Fear

Media hype in US on the coronavirus, highlighting daily confirmed cases and new deaths, relentlessly and unstop, but barely mention good news along.

At the early epicenter of the virus, Hubei, China, for every person died from the infection, there were 20+ people totally recovered from it, or 3193 death, 65655 total recovery. Both in China and in US, this fact was not reported enough along with number of death, but only a footnote.

The other factual information is that most people who are infected with this virus have mild flu like symptom. This fact is buried in the printed and TV news. Recent report of  Oscar winning actor Tom Hanks and wife having mild symptom of coronavirus infection was buried deep in the news.

Reporting the health crises factually, both good and bad news in equal importance without sensationalizing the bad news, educates mass without instilling fear. News media and social media are both BAD at disseminating novel coronavirus crisis, they are trying to instill fear into the mass.

Fear of coronavirus has gradually sink in, and a wide spread panic has emerged in the populace at US last week.

Market

The stock market had two deep dives last week before recovering some on Friday - The 2000 point drop in Dow Jones on Thursday March 12th was almost fully recovered on Friday! Personally I believe that some rich entities manipulated the market making it have great swings to achieve shorting gain.

Talking about politicizing the crisis - it was headline news when the market tanked, and the rebounding of the market on Friday was buried in fine prints, squeezed out of headline.  It seems that the news media wishes the situation getting worse every day for their ratings and their political agenda.

Statistics: Novel Coronavirus and Influenza

Coronavirus is a health issue like influenza, but more concerning due to its higher death rate. I looked into CDC reports and coronavirus tracking report, and compared the death rate by ages in the following two charts

Influenza:  (October) 2019-  2020 season so far 36 million infected - confirmed by lab tests, 370,000 people hospitalized, 22000 people died, 0.1% death rate

death by age per 100,000

Novel coronavirus: started Jan 20^th 2020 when Wuhan China started locked down. So far world wide 153,503 confirmed infections, 5789 death, 3.7% death rate

death by age per 100

People over 60 has very high death rate for both influenza and novel coronavirus; Surprisingly there has no report of death of children under age 9.  Coronavirus is order of magnitude more deadly than influenza, but still has a very low percentage of death for people under 60.


Precaution vs. Panic

Some extreme measures have been taken in China, and this week in US and other countries.

Some are good measures, others are over reactions.

Short term local lock down at epicenter of outbreak, such as that in Wuhan China; travel ban to/from countries with high number of cases such China earlier, Europe now, are all good measures. Note that lock downs in China only occurred in the city Wuhan and nearby areas.  The lock down did cause other medical problems, for example, patients with other diseases could not get medical care they needed because of closure of hospitals.  I suspect more people died because they could not get medical care than that from coronavirus, but no one is discussing this collateral damage.

Large scale closure of schools in many places which have no indication of outbreak is an over reaction. As statistics and facts indicate, all we need to do is to ask or require high risk people and infected people stay home or hospital.

It is worthwhile to note that there was no wide spread school closures or sports event cancellations. during 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.

Media hype and local governments' over reactions, exacerbate the coronavirus crisis.

Many people panicked: they rushed to stockpile supplies - emptied shelf in Walmart, Sams, Costco, Target .... people fighting for toilet paper ! Pharmacies ran out of sanitizes and face masks  ...... Some locations' long lines and empty shelf at supermarkets became headlines news nationally and locally. This cause more panic shopping.

The fact is that there is no shortage of supplies. We went shopping at local COSTCO this morning, the shelf was full, even the local news which sensationalized the long line and empty shelf at a Houston supermarket, had to mention that there was no shortage in supply, the particular supermarket needed time to replenish the shelf.

Starbucks stopped filling personal cups, and many corporations followed banning personal cups at workplace. People have to use disposable cups and utensils at workplace. At least in my office, disposable cups are more susceptible to contamination than personal cups.

Don't let saturated negative news overwhelm you. Sensational headlines are typically only tell you partial truth, seek full picture, cross check if you are worried.

Panic makes people irrational! Current environment makes those who are not panic make irrational decisions as well for fear of later litigation.

All said, proper precautions have to be taken for coronavirus pandemic:

washing hands frequently as needed
stay home when sick or feel sick
cover your coughs
rest well, sleep well, drink a lot of water
high risk population needs to avoid crowds
avoid outbreak areas


Exactly what have been recommended for years by medical community to prevent flu!!